Danika MacDonell and Helena De Figueiredo Valente
1. Background
As a follow-up to the latest post introducing the MCSC's interactive geospatial mapping tool for trucking fleet transition support, we present a set of exercises designed to familiarize users with the tool and its interactive features. We also present a case study that demonstrates how we envision the tool being used by a trucking fleet owner.
Big shout out to Helena De Figueiredo Valente, who did awesome work developing the videos, examples and case study in this post as an undergraduate researcher with MIT's Undergraduate Research Opportunities (UROP) program!
2. Access and Usage
For users new to the tool, please check out this blog post for instructions on how to access the tool and a set of introductory exercises to get familiarized with the tool and its features.
3. Case study: Fleet owner
This section presents an in-depth case study that demonstrates how we envision a fleet owner using the tool to assess where and how to transition their fleet to low-carbon energy carriers. We encourage users to explore the questions and mapping tool features presented in the case study using the interactive methods presented in the above videos.
Please feel free to reach out with any questions or feedback on the case study (danikam@mit.edu)! We'd love to hear how we can improve it to better reflect and support stakeholder decision-making.
Premise
Suppose you're a dry-van freight carrier looking to transition part of your fleet to low-carbon energy carriers. You have traditionally operated out of southern Texas. Your typical area of operation is confined to Texas and the US-Mexico border, but you also offer cross-country transport as needed. You buy new tractors for your fleet every 7 years or so to reduce costs associated with frequent repairs to older vehicles. Several vehicles in your fleet are coming close to needing replacement.
Overall Goal
You're trying to decide which routes are feasible to transition in the near term, and which energy carriers could be used for your short-range vs long-range fleets.
Approach
We'll first consider the possibility of transitioning operations to battery electric in the near term by considering transition cost, charging infrastructure availability, supportive incentives and regulations, and the capacity of the grid to support EV truck charging. We'll then consider potential strategies to transition some operations to hydrogen trucking in the longer term, accounting for availability of both hydrogen and refueling infrastructure, as well as supportive incentives and regulations.
Transitioning to battery electric
A range of features can help assess opportunities to transition to battery electric.
Transition Cost
You can compare maximum demand charge, electricity rates, and the total cost of EV truck ownership between Texas and nearby states. Since these costs are relatively low in Texas, you could center your EV pilot in Texas for short-range routes (less than ~200 miles) that are within the range of current EV truck models.
Comparing the cost premium relative to diesel for a Tesla Semi style model, you'll see that the premium is minimized (~15-25% in Texas) for operations with high annual mileage and low charging power, suggesting that well-used routes that return to depot for low-power charging would be an ideal starting point for electrification.
Relevant map features:
Total Cost of Truck Ownership
Gradient attributes:
EV Trucking Cost ($ / mile)
EV Trucking Cost Premium (%)
Maximum Demand Charge (state level)
Maximum Demand Charge (utility level)
Commercial Electricity Price
Figures 1-5 show these layers on the tool (click on any figure to expand it).
Fig. 1: EV Trucking Cost ($/mile) Fig. 2: EV Trucking Cost Premium (%)
Fig. 3: Maximum Demand Charge (state level) Fig. 4: Maximum Demand Charge (utility level)
Fig. 5: Commercial Electricity Price
Infrastructure Availability
Most of the existing direct current fast chargers (DCFC chargers) along highways are likely not usable by trucks, but give a sense of each region’s current investment in electric charging infrastructure and the ability of the local grid to support DCFC charging. There are relatively few existing DCFC chargers in Texas, indicating that investment in additional infrastructure will likely be needed for regional routes that could require highway charging. Because of this, in the near term, it will probably make more sense to electrify shorter return-to-base operations that don't require highway charging.
There are, however, many existing DCFC chargers in the Northeast and California, as well as supporting incentives and regulations. This suggests these regions are likely to have a more robust charging infrastructure in the near future, so cross-country transport to these regions could be a good option when EV truck models with adequate range are available.
Relevant map features:
Direct Current Fast Chargers
State-level Incentives and Regulations
Support type: Incentives and Regulations
Support target: Infrastructure only
Gradient Attribute: Infrastructure Incentives and Regulations (Electricity)
Fig. 6: State-level incentives and regulations for charging infrastructure, with existing direct current fast chargers overlaid.
Grid Capacity to Support Charging
To get a high-level sense of the grid's ability to support charging, you can compare the grid's actual or theoretical excess generating capacity with the state-level energy demand under a fully electrified trucking scenario. You'll find the demand is a relatively small percent of capacity in the Texas grid compared with surrounding states, suggesting that the Texas grid could be well suited to support charging. For more localized information, you could contact local electric utilities to inquire about the feasibility of different scales of electric vehicle usage and potential necessary upgrades to the electric distribution system.
Relevant map feature: Energy Demand from Electrified Trucking
Gradient Attributes:
Annual Energy Demand for Fully Electrified Trucking, as a % of Electricity Generated
Annual Energy Demand for Fully Electrified Trucking, as a % of Theoretical Excess Electricity Generation in 2022
Fig. 7: Annual energy demand for fully electrified trucking, as a % of either electricity generated (left) or theoretical excess electricity generation (right)
Transitioning to hydrogen trucking
Hydrogen is also being considered as an alternative trucking fuel, though the technology and supporting infrastructure is generally further from widespread commercialization than battery electric. However, we can still use some of the tool's features to assess routes and regions that may be well-suited for hydrogen trucking once it becomes commercially viable.
Infrastructure Availability
Currently, all of the highway hydrogen refueling infrastructure in the U.S. is located in California, so infrastructure build-out will likely be needed before any of your Texas-based operations can readily transition to hydrogen trucks.
Looking at hydrogen-related features in the tool, we can anticipate that the DOE-funded Houston to LA H2 corridor, which passes through southern Texas and includes the Texas Triangle, can offer infrastructure to support hydrogen refueling along this route once established. Since hydrogen trucks on the market or in commercialization generally have a longer range than EV trucks (~250-750 miles), they may ultimately be better suited for this ~1,500 mile route than EV trucks.
You could coordinate with infrastructure providers involved in the Houston to LA project, and any other hydrogen fueling provision efforts along the corridor, to anticipate when reliable infrastructure will come online. You may also consider discussing bulk usage agreements with infrastructure providers to bring down fueling costs.
Relevant map features:
Hydrogen Stations
Houston to LA H2 Corridor
Fig. 8: Hydrogen stations and Houston to LA H2 corridor
Supportive Incentives and Regulations
At the moment, there are relatively few incentives or regulations to support hydrogen trucking in Texas. California, however, already has a total of 15 supportive incentives and regulations to support the purchase of hydrogen trucks and installation of supporting infrastructure. This level of support vastly exceeds other states, and reinforces the attractiveness of the Houston to LA corridor as a starting point to consider if you want to explore a transition to hydrogen trucks in the long term.
Relevant map feature: State-level Incentives and Regulations
Support type: Incentives and Regulations
Support target: All Targets
Gradient Attribute: Incentives and Regulations (Hydrogen)
Fig. 9: Incentives and regulations for hydrogen
Hydrogen Availability
At present, there is significant gray hydrogen production in east Texas. While gray hydrogen is relatively carbon-intensive, it could offer a viable supply while planned electrolyzer facilities, including a major planned 1.3 GW facility in Southwest Texas, are being built. The Texas grid can provide cleaner electricity when compared with other U.S. states, and is expected to become cleaner in the near future with major planned additions of wind and solar. Assuming the electrolyzer facilities will be using electricity from the state grid, future hydrogen production in the area has potential to be much less carbon-intensive than it is today.
You could coordinate with infrastructure providers in Texas to discuss the possibility of supplying new hydrogen refueling infrastructure with lower-carbon hydrogen from planned electrolyzers as they come online.
Relevant map features:
Hydrogen from Refineries
Operational Electrolyzers
Installed Electrolyzers
Planned Electrolyzers
Grid Emission Intensity
Fig. 10: CO2 intensity of the power grid, with hydrogen production facilities overlaid
Summary
This case study analyzed the mapping tool's features in the context of the current commercial availability of hydrogen and battery electric truck assets, as well as U.S. grid decarbonization, to identify both near- and longer-term opportunities to transition new fleet additions to use low-carbon energy carriers.
Electrify short-haul return-to-base operations in the short term, progressing to longer haul going out to California and the Northeast.
In the short term, the analysis highlighted that the Texas region in particular is relatively well suited for electrifying the fleet's shorter-haul (<200 miles) return-to-base operations that don't require highway charging. Without accounting for incentives and subsidies, the lifecycle cost of owning and operating a class 8 electric truck in the region could already be within 25% of diesel trucking for a Tesla Semi style model. As more dedicated highway charging for heavy duty vehicles comes online, longer-haul routes going out to California and the Northeast will likely become strong candidates for electrification thanks to both strong incentives and regulation to support charging infrastructure provision in these regions, and to these regions' demonstrated leadership in highway charging provision for light-duty vehicles.
Consider transitioning longer-haul routes to hydrogen in the long-term, starting with the Houston to LA corridor.
In the longer term, as hydrogen infrastructure projects come online and hydrogen trucks become commercially available, routes going out to California from your southern Texas base could also become strong candidates for a transition to hydrogen. This is thanks not only to the anticipated hydrogen refueling infrastructure along the DOE-funded Houston to LA hydrogen infrastructure corridor, but also to strong incentives and leadership around hydrogen infrastructure provision in California itself and the increasingly clean and abundant supply of hydrogen anticipated in the Texas region.
5. Next Steps
Leveraging the case studies shared in this blog post, the next step for this tool is to begin systematically collecting feedback from a range of industry stakeholders, including fleets, truck manufacturers, infrastructure providers and, if possible, regulators. The goal of this feedback is to understand how the tool's features and interface can best be refined to support different stakeholders in identifying and assessing next steps in their sustainability journeys.
In addition to this feedback collection, there are a few specific features we plan to add with a new undergraduate student joining us over the summer through MIT's Undergraduate Research Opportunity Program (UROP):
Layers to visualize the four phases of the U.S. DOT's National Strategy to Accelerate Deployment of Zero-Emission Infrastructure for Freight Trucks. This addition is motivated by feedback from several industry stakeholders that emphasized the value of visualizing planned infrastructure to support charging or refueling of alternative fleets.
Functionality to enable users to upload their own geospatial data and visualize it overlaid on other layers.
A new "click" feature to allow users to view details of specific features by clicking on them with the mouse. A use case would be for users to be able to click on specific states when viewing the "incentives and regulations" layer to view an itemized list of the state's incentives and regulations, along with links to more information.
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